Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 30,124
2 Florida 27,192
3 Arizona 26,868
4 Mississippi 25,050
5 Alabama 22,735
6 New York 22,202
7 New Jersey 21,419
8 Georgia 21,403
9 South Carolina 21,055
10 Nevada 20,494
11 Texas 20,093
12 Tennessee 19,740
13 Rhode Island 19,629
14 District of Columbia 18,921
15 Massachusetts 18,050
16 Arkansas 17,965
17 Delaware 17,091
18 Iowa 16,969
19 Maryland 16,907
20 Illinois 16,879
21 California 16,368
22 Idaho 16,132
23 Nebraska 16,046
24 Utah 14,862
25 Connecticut 14,392
26 North Carolina 14,158
27 Virginia 12,772
28 Oklahoma 12,616
29 Indiana 12,523
30 Kansas 12,471
31 Wisconsin 12,400
32 South Dakota 11,943
33 Minnesota 11,820
34 North Dakota 11,773
35 Missouri 11,688
36 New Mexico 11,326
37 Michigan 10,437
38 Pennsylvania 10,228
39 Kentucky 9,615
40 Ohio 9,485
41 Washington 9,401
42 Colorado 9,367
43 Puerto Rico 8,746
44 Alaska 7,169
45 Wyoming 5,926
46 Oregon 5,663
47 Montana 5,591
48 New Hampshire 5,174
49 West Virginia 4,910
50 Hawaii 3,945
51 Maine 3,149
52 Vermont 2,456

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Mississippi 270
2 Georgia 222
3 Texas 220
4 Kansas 210
5 Alabama 207
6 Tennessee 204
7 Puerto Rico 201
8 Idaho 193
9 Nevada 189
10 Missouri 178
11 Arkansas 171
12 North Dakota 166
13 Florida 164
14 Kentucky 154
15 California 153
16 Illinois 153
17 Rhode Island 144
18 Louisiana 143
19 Hawaii 133
20 Oklahoma 133
21 South Carolina 123
22 Iowa 115
23 Nebraska 115
24 Wisconsin 112
25 South Dakota 110
26 North Carolina 107
27 Utah 103
28 Indiana 99
29 Arizona 92
30 Virginia 91
31 Minnesota 86
32 Alaska 85
33 Wyoming 82
34 Maryland 79
35 Washington 74
36 Ohio 73
37 Montana 70
38 Delaware 65
39 District of Columbia 63
40 Michigan 63
41 New Mexico 54
42 Oregon 49
43 Pennsylvania 48
44 West Virginia 44
45 Colorado 43
46 Massachusetts 39
47 Connecticut 38
48 New Jersey 36
49 New York 29
50 Maine 16
51 New Hampshire 11
52 Vermont 9

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,793
2 New York 1,668
3 Massachusetts 1,287
4 Connecticut 1,250
5 Louisiana 991
6 Rhode Island 969
7 District of Columbia 850
8 Mississippi 726
9 Michigan 662
10 Arizona 637
11 Illinois 634
12 Delaware 611
13 Maryland 605
14 Pennsylvania 593
15 Indiana 472
16 Florida 462
17 South Carolina 458
18 Georgia 446
19 Alabama 396
20 Texas 380
21 Nevada 368
22 New Mexico 347
23 Ohio 334
24 Colorado 330
25 Iowa 320
26 Minnesota 316
27 New Hampshire 314
28 California 295
29 Virginia 282
30 Washington 250
31 Missouri 242
32 North Carolina 234
33 Tennessee 210
34 Arkansas 209
35 Kentucky 194
36 Nebraska 192
37 Wisconsin 183
38 Oklahoma 176
39 North Dakota 175
40 South Dakota 175
41 Idaho 163
42 Kansas 144
43 Utah 118
44 Puerto Rico 111
45 Oregon 96
46 Maine 94
47 Vermont 92
48 West Virginia 92
49 Montana 78
50 Wyoming 58
51 Alaska 36
52 Hawaii 28

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 8
2 Florida 7
3 Louisiana 7
4 Arizona 6
5 Nevada 6
6 Texas 6
7 South Carolina 5
8 Georgia 4
9 Idaho 4
10 Tennessee 4
11 Alabama 3
12 Arkansas 3
13 California 3
14 Iowa 3
15 Oklahoma 3
16 Indiana 2
17 Kentucky 2
18 Missouri 2
19 New Mexico 2
20 North Carolina 2
21 North Dakota 2
22 Ohio 2
23 Puerto Rico 2
24 Washington 2
25 Wyoming 2
26 District of Columbia 1
27 Illinois 1
28 Kansas 1
29 Maryland 1
30 Massachusetts 1
31 Minnesota 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 Oregon 1
34 Pennsylvania 1
35 Rhode Island 1
36 Utah 1
37 Virginia 1
38 West Virginia 1
39 Wisconsin 1
40 Alaska 0
41 Colorado 0
42 Connecticut 0
43 Delaware 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 Michigan 0
47 Montana 0
48 New Hampshire 0
49 New Jersey 0
50 New York 0
51 South Dakota 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,553 1 99
Lafayette Florida 133,223 2 99
Lake Tennessee 115,023 3 99
Lee Arkansas 110,986 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 104,115 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 35,578 146 95
Richland South Carolina 23,004 405 87
Orange California 14,015 928 70
York South Carolina 13,755 963 69
Pierce Washington 7,649 1706 45

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,375 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,096 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,331 5 99
Richland South Carolina 428 660 78
Davidson Tennessee 339 839 73
Orange California 262 1040 66
Pierce Washington 182 1328 57
York South Carolina 114 1677 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons